4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 18 at the 43

Buffalo Bills 6 – New England Patriots 25

What Actually Happened

(:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-N.Peterman pass short left to 25-L.McCoy to NE 34 for 9 yards (31-J.Jones). Swing pass, caught at NE 45.

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
What Happened
  • 20% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +2.98 EP
  • 80% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 43, worth -0.50 EP
KICK +0.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.72 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -0.52 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 12, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.43 EP