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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 2 at the 32

Buffalo Bills 6 – New England Patriots 25

What Actually Happened

(3:55) (Shotgun) 3-D.Anderson pass incomplete short middle to 13-K.Benjamin (24-S.Gilmore). Receiver and coverage at NE 25, slanting right.

The Three Options

GO +1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.37 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 32, worth -1.17 EP
KICK +0.84 EP
  • 66% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 42, worth -1.52 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model