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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 9 at the 43

Buffalo Bills 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(10:08) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback. Kick through end zone.

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.93 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 43, worth -1.85 EP
KICK -0.74 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 12, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model