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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 51

Buffalo Bills 6 – New England Patriots 12

What Actually Happened

(14:56) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 36 yards to NE 15, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 11-J.Edelman.

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.63 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 51, worth -2.71 EP
KICK -1.86 EP
  • 18% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 82% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 14, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model