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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 89

New England Patriots 9 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(9:29) 6-R.Allen punts 55 yards to BUF 34, Center-49-J.Cardona. 23-M.Hyde pushed ob at NE 35 for 31 yards (6-R.Allen; 36-B.King).

The Three Options

GO -2.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.33 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 89, worth -5.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.71 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 46, worth -2.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP