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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 32

New England Patriots 9 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(:10) 3-S.Gostkowski 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. Penalty on NE-93-L.Guy, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO +0.87 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +2.38 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 32, worth -0.10 EP
KICK +1.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.97 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 42, worth -0.25 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model