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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 29

Buffalo Bills 0 – New England Patriots 9

What Actually Happened

(1:44) 4-S.Hauschka 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.61 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +3.85 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 29, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 39, worth -1.40 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model