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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 64

Buffalo Bills 0 – New England Patriots 6

What Actually Happened

(10:20) 9-C.Bojorquez to BUF 21 for -15 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at BUF 21. 9-C.Bojorquez punts 26 yards to NE 38, downed by BUF-42-P.DiMarco.

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.27 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 64, worth -3.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 22, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model