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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 22

New England Patriots 3 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(11:51) 3-S.Gostkowski 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +1.11 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.90 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 22, worth -0.95 EP
KICK +1.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 32, worth -1.72 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model