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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 53

Buffalo Bills 0 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(1:49) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback. Kick into end zone.

The Three Options

GO -1.14 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.96 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 53, worth -3.44 EP
KICK -2.56 EP
  • 15% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 85% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -3.28 EP
PUNT -1.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 15, worth -1.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model