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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 42

Houston Texans 42 – Miami Dolphins 23

What Actually Happened

(1:14) 8-T.Daniel punts 31 yards to MIA 11, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +0.92 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 42, worth -1.33 EP
KICK +0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -1.65 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 12, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.66 EP