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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 65

Houston Texans 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(9:41) 8-T.Daniel punts 42 yards to MIA 23, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-J.Grant to MIA 31 for 8 yards (58-P.Kalambayi).

The Three Options

GO -0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.37 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 65, worth -3.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 23, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model