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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 28

Miami Dolphins 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(10:54) 8-B.Osweiler pass incomplete short right to 21-F.Gore (55-B.McKinney).

The Three Options

GO +2.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.09 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 28, worth -1.45 EP
KICK +0.89 EP
  • 82% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 38, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model