Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 81

Houston Texans 21 – Miami Dolphins 10

(6:55) 8-T.Daniel punts 53 yards to MIA 28, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-J.Grant pushed ob at MIA 49 for 21 yards (20-J.Reid).

The Three Options

GO -2.73 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.81 EP
61% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 81, worth -5.02 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model