Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 54

Miami Dolphins 10 – Houston Texans 21

(9:01) 2-M.Haack punts 37 yards to HOU 17, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 21-T.Ervin.

The Three Options

GO -0.41 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +3.54 EP
61% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 54, worth -2.95 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model