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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 43

Houston Texans 14 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(7:37) 8-T.Daniel punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.95 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 43, worth -1.80 EP
KICK -0.25 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 12, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model