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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 68

Miami Dolphins 7 – Houston Texans 14

What Actually Happened

(12:51) 2-M.Haack punts 60 yards to HOU 8, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 21-T.Ervin.

The Three Options

GO -1.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.13 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 68, worth -4.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.51 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 26, worth -1.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model