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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 1

Las Vegas Raiders 14 – Indianapolis Colts 13

What Actually Happened

(9:51) 4-D.Carr up the middle to IND 1 for no gain (96-D.Autry). PENALTY on IND-23-K.Moore II, Defensive Offside,0 yards,enforced at IND 1 - No Play. Oakland challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 4-D.Carr up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on IND-23-K.Moore II, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO +3.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.09 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 1, worth +0.66 EP
KICK +2.10 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -0.54 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model