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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 4 at the 7

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 14

What Actually Happened

(:29) 4-A.Vinatieri 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +2.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +5.93 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 7, worth +0.01 EP
KICK +2.48 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.56 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.34 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model