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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 68

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(10:50) 2-R.Sanchez punts 46 yards to LV 22, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 17-D.Harris to LV 21 for -1 yards (46-L.Rhodes, 28-C.Milton).

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.56 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 68, worth -4.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.44 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 26, worth -1.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP