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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 23

Green Bay Packers 7 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(14:23) 2-M.Crosby 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +1.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.33 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 23, worth -1.10 EP
KICK +1.28 EP
What Happened
  • 88% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 33, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model