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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 74

Green Bay Packers 13 – Los Angeles Rams 16

What Actually Happened

(6:19) 6-J.Scott punts 40 yards to LA 34, Center-43-H.Bradley, downed by GB-54-J.Crawford.

The Three Options

GO -1.98 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.16 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 74, worth -4.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 32, worth -1.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model