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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 11 at the 35

Green Bay Packers 10 – Los Angeles Rams 8

What Actually Happened

(9:43) 2-M.Crosby 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.34 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 35, worth -1.76 EP
KICK +0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 45, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model