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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 75

Los Angeles Rams 8 – Green Bay Packers 10

What Actually Happened

(14:05) 6-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to GB 27, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 38-T.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.65 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.49 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model