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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 16 at the 51

Green Bay Packers 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(11:32) 84-L.Kendricks reported in as eligible. 6-J.Scott punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-43-H.Bradley, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.53 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.59 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 51, worth -3.15 EP
KICK -1.79 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -3.15 EP
PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 14, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model