Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 12 at the 75

Green Bay Packers 10 – Los Angeles Rams 0

(4:58) 6-J.Scott punts 55 yards to LA 20, Center-43-H.Bradley. 19-J.Natson to LA 20 for no gain (27-J.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -2.56 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.51 EP
70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 75, worth -4.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model