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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 55

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Green Bay Packers 10

What Actually Happened

(8:29) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker pass short right to 37-S.Shields to GB 43 for 12 yards (36-R.Greene).

The Three Options

GO +0.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.73 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 55, worth -2.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.91 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model