Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 14 at the 77

Kansas City Chiefs 30 – Denver Broncos 20

(4:12) 2-D.Colquitt punts 42 yards to DEN 35, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-41-J.Winchester.

The Three Options

GO -2.23 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.12 EP
66% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 77, worth -3.97 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model