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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 37

Denver Broncos 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 3

What Actually Happened

(11:46) 8-B.McManus 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-3-C.Wadman.

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.77 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 37, worth -2.24 EP
KICK -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • 55% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.42 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 46, worth -2.90 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP