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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 12 at the 27

Cleveland Browns 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(2:38) (Field Goal formation) 17-G.Joseph 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.19 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.81 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.44 EP
KICK +0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 37, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model