Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 85

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(7:01) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 48 yards to CLE 37, Center-57-K.Canaday. 22-J.Peppers to 50 for 13 yards (34-T.Edmunds). PENALTY on CLE-25-D.Hilliard, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at 50.

The Three Options

GO -2.20 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.97 EP
54% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 85, worth -4.86 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model