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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 24

Cleveland Browns 12 – Pittsburgh Steelers 33

What Actually Happened

(:13) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 87-S.DeValve for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +0.75 EP
What Happened
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +2.12 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 34, worth -0.16 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.74 EP