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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 9 at the 81

Cleveland Browns 12 – Pittsburgh Steelers 26

What Actually Happened

(7:48) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 46 yards to PIT 35, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer.

The Three Options

GO -2.50 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.42 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 81, worth -4.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 38, worth -1.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model