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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 16 at the 82

Cleveland Browns 12 – Pittsburgh Steelers 26

What Actually Happened

(11:12) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 54 yards to PIT 28, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 10-R.Switzer pushed ob at PIT 42 for 14 yards (87-S.DeValve).

The Three Options

GO -2.94 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.70 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 82, worth -4.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 40, worth -1.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model