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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 24

Pittsburgh Steelers 23 – Cleveland Browns 12

What Actually Happened

(13:33) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +1.23 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.79 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24, worth -0.94 EP
KICK +1.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 34, worth -1.70 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model