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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 16

Cleveland Browns 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:15) (Field Goal formation) 17-G.Joseph 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.17 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.17 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 16, worth -0.96 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26, worth -1.46 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model