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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 9 at the 70

Cleveland Browns 6 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(10:43) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 45 yards to PIT 25, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 10-R.Switzer to PIT 34 for 9 yards (54-T.Vallejo).

The Three Options

GO -1.94 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.95 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 70, worth -4.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 28, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model