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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 4

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Cleveland Browns 6

What Actually Happened

(:15) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 19-J.Smith-Schuster to CLE 1 for 3 yards (38-T.Carrie).

The Three Options

GO +3.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +5.81 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 4, worth +0.09 EP
KICK +2.81 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.87 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -0.10 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model