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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 15

Tennessee Titans 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(12:55) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +2.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.92 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 15, worth -0.39 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.08 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP