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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 11

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(1:51) (Field Goal formation) 4-M.Badgley 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +2.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +6.01 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +1.95 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 22, worth -0.76 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model