Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 12 at the 79

Tennessee Titans 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(7:12) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 49 yards to LAC 30, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 20-D.King pushed ob at TEN 13 for 57 yards (29-D.Cruikshank). PENALTY on LAC-32-J.Jackson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 32.

The Three Options

GO -2.99 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.06 EP
70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 79, worth -4.74 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model