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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Tennessee Titans
4th & 1 at the 1
Tennessee Titans 13 – Los Angeles Chargers 20
What Actually Happened
(:35) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 88-L.Stocker for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+4.20 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
61% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.79 EP
- 39% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 1, worth +0.16 EP
KICK
+2.80 EP
- 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.84 EP
- 1% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.12 EP
PUNT
-0.02 EP
- Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
