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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 10

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Tennessee Titans 13

What Actually Happened

(12:33) (Field Goal formation) 4-M.Badgley 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +2.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.99 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 10, worth +0.95 EP
KICK +2.70 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.79 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth +0.10 EP
PUNT +0.83 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model