4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 59

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Tennessee Titans 13

What Actually Happened

(5:45) (Punt formation) 5-D.Jones punts 40 yards to TEN 19, Center-47-M.Windt. 25-A.Jackson to TEN 19 for no gain (43-M.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.65 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 59, worth -3.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 18, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model