Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 75

New York Giants 6 – Atlanta Falcons 13

(13:08) 9-R.Dixon punts 40 yards to ATL 35, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 14-J.Hardy.

The Three Options

GO -2.31 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.54 EP
65% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 75, worth -4.36 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model