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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 18

New York Giants 3 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(3:55) 2-A.Rosas 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +0.93 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.46 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 18, worth -0.86 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 28, worth -1.46 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model