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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 1

New York Giants 3 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(11:44) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short right to 82-S.Simonson (27-D.Kazee) [54-F.Oluokun].

The Three Options

GO +3.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.74 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 1, worth +0.34 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model