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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 21

New Orleans Saints 21 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(2:15) (Field Goal formation) 3-W.Lutz 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.66 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.11 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -0.71 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 31, worth -1.15 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model