4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 36

Baltimore Ravens 17 – New Orleans Saints 21

What Actually Happened

(3:25) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass incomplete short left to 83-W.Snead IV [57-A.Okafor].

The Three Options

GO +0.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.34 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 36, worth -1.24 EP
KICK +0.38 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 46, worth -1.78 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model