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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 18

New Orleans Saints 14 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(7:03) 9-D.Brees up the middle to BAL 17 for 1 yard (57-C.Mosley).

The Three Options

GO +2.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.75 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 18, worth -0.83 EP
KICK +1.49 EP
  • 91% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 28, worth -1.34 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model